When Brazil confirmed its first-ever case of highly pathogenic avian influenza at a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul on May 16, 2025, the world didn’t just take notice—it shut its doors. Within 24 hours, the European Union and China halted all poultry imports. By Saturday, May 17, Mexico, Chile, and Uruguay joined the list. Soon after, Iraq, South Korea, Malaysia, and Argentina followed. For a country that supplies 14% of the world’s chicken meat and raked in $10.5 billion in poultry exports in 2024, this wasn’t just a setback—it was a seismic shock.
The outbreak that stopped the world
The outbreak began at a single farm in southern Brazil, where health inspectors arrived to find nearly every bird dead. Ananda Paula Kowalski, Coordinator of the Poultry Health Program for Rio Grande do Sul, described the scene in a grim, translated soundbite: "Almost 100% of the poultry in the first shed died... by last night, we’d already lost 80% in the second. The rest were culled." The farm was sealed with yellow placards in Portuguese: "Property sealed off." Disinfection barriers went up overnight. No one was allowed in or out.What made this so alarming wasn’t just the death toll—it was the timing. Brazil had just become the go-to supplier for eggs after a massive bird flu outbreak in the U.S. wiped out domestic production. Between January and April 2025, Brazilian egg exports to the U.S. surged by over 1,000% compared to the same period in 2024. Now, that momentum was gone. The same machinery that had filled American refrigerators was now sitting idle, while global buyers scrambled to find alternatives.
Who banned what—and why
The European Union acted swiftly, citing strict biosecurity protocols under its Animal Health Law. China’s State Administration of Market Regulation followed suit, freezing all poultry, eggs, and byproducts from Brazil. Mexico’s Servicio Nacional de Sanidad, Inocuidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria suspended imports of live birds, meat, and fertile eggs on May 17. Chile and Uruguay cited "urgent sanitary risks." Argentina, despite being a regional rival, didn’t hesitate—its agriculture ministry called it "a necessary, if painful, step."By May 19, nine countries had closed their borders. That’s more than half of Brazil’s top 15 poultry import markets. The Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) estimated daily losses at $12 million. Farmers in Rio Grande do Sul—where over 40% of Brazil’s poultry is raised—were staring at empty coops and unpaid bills.
One country blinked. The rest didn’t.
Then came the twist. On June 1, 2025, Mexico quietly lifted its ban—except for products from Rio Grande do Sul. It was a tactical move. Mexico imports nearly 15% of Brazil’s total poultry output. Cutting off the entire country was economically painful. But allowing imports from São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina—states with no confirmed cases—was a compromise. The move was praised by Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock as "a model of science-based decision-making."But China, the EU, Chile, Uruguay, Iraq, South Korea, Malaysia, and Argentina held firm. Their reasoning? Brazil’s surveillance system, while robust, had failed once. And in global trade, trust is fragile. "One outbreak doesn’t mean the whole system is broken," said Luis Rua, Brazil’s secretary of international trade. "But one breach can break decades of credibility."
What’s at stake beyond the farm gate
This isn’t just about chicken. It’s about jobs. Brazil’s poultry sector employs over 2 million people directly—farmers, transporters, processors, exporters. In Rio Grande do Sul, where unemployment is already high, the ripple effect is devastating. Local feed mills have cut shifts. Trucking companies are laying off drivers. Even the packaging plants that make egg cartons and plastic trays are idling.And then there’s the global food chain. With Brazil out, countries are turning to Thailand, Poland, and the U.S. But those markets are already stretched thin. Prices are rising. In Europe, chicken breast prices jumped 8% in the first week of June. In Asia, retailers are rationing supplies. The World Food Programme warned this could impact school meal programs in low-income nations that rely on affordable Brazilian imports.
The road back
Brazil’s strategy is methodical. The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock has submitted detailed epidemiological reports to every trading partner. The affected farm’s zone is under a strict 30-day quarantine—per World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) guidelines—before any reconsideration of "disease-free" status. Surveillance drones now patrol poultry zones. Biosecurity audits are mandatory for every exporter."We didn’t just lose markets," said one farmer in Santa Maria, a town near the outbreak site. "We lost our reputation. Now we have to earn it back, one bird at a time."
Experts say full recovery could take six to nine months—unless another outbreak occurs. The industry’s hope rests on Brazil’s ability to prove it can contain the virus without shutting down its entire supply chain. The world is watching. And so are the chickens.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Brazil’s bird flu outbreak affect global egg prices?
Brazil’s egg exports to the U.S. surged over 1,000% between January and April 2025 due to a domestic shortage caused by U.S. bird flu outbreaks. When Brazil’s own outbreak triggered global import bans, egg prices in the U.S. rose 12% in the first week of June, as buyers scrambled for alternatives from Poland and Canada. The sudden loss of Brazil’s supply created a global egg shortage that’s still being felt in supermarkets and food service sectors.
Why did Mexico lift its ban while others didn’t?
Mexico, which imports 15% of Brazil’s poultry, acted on targeted evidence. The outbreak was confined to Rio Grande do Sul, and Brazil provided verified data showing other states remained disease-free. Mexico’s decision reflected a science-based approach: restrict only what’s risky. Other countries, like China and the EU, opted for blanket bans out of caution, fearing political backlash if they were seen as too lenient.
What’s the timeline for lifting the bans?
The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) requires a 30-day quarantine after culling before declaring an area disease-free. Brazil completed this phase in late June 2025. But international approval depends on each country’s internal review—some may demand additional testing or audits. The European Union typically takes 60–90 days to lift bans after a confirmed outbreak, meaning full access may not return until late summer.
How is Brazil preventing future outbreaks?
Brazil has launched a $200 million national biosecurity upgrade, including mandatory farm audits, drone surveillance over poultry zones, and real-time reporting systems for bird mortality. Farmers now must install disinfection footbaths and restrict visitor access. The Brazilian Animal Protein Association is also training 10,000 workers in outbreak response protocols. The goal: turn this crisis into a global benchmark for poultry safety.
What’s the long-term impact on Brazil’s economy?
Brazil’s poultry exports totaled $10.5 billion in 2024. With nine major markets closed, the industry could lose $2.3 billion in revenue by the end of 2025 if bans remain. That’s equivalent to 1.2% of Brazil’s total agricultural exports. The government has already approved emergency loans for farmers, but long-term recovery depends on restoring trust. If Brazil succeeds, it could become the world’s most trusted poultry exporter. If not, competitors like Thailand and the U.S. may permanently capture its market share.
Could this happen again?
Absolutely. Avian flu strains mutate rapidly, and Brazil’s vast poultry industry—spread across 26 states—creates countless potential entry points. Climate change is also extending migration patterns of wild birds, which carry the virus. Experts warn this outbreak isn’t an anomaly—it’s a warning. The real question isn’t if another outbreak will happen, but whether Brazil—and the world—is ready to respond faster next time.